The UK labour market just handed the Bank of England exactly what it needed to justify another interest rate cut. Unemployment jumped to 5%, wage growth is cooling, and traders are betting three-to-one that rates will drop in December. If you’ve been watching your mortgage rate like a hawk, this might be the news you’ve been waiting for.
Unemployment Rises as Wage Growth Softens
Jobless Rate Jumps to 5%
Here’s the headline: unemployment hit 5% – higher than economists expected. Meanwhile, wage growth eased to 4.6% overall, with private sector pay (the number the Bank of England actually cares about) slowing to 4.2% in the three months to September.
Why Private Sector Pay Matters
Why does this matter? Because the Monetary Policy Committee watches private sector wages like it’s the final episode of a Netflix series. When wages cool, inflation pressures ease. And when inflation pressures ease, rate cuts become more likely.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, reckons today’s data “strengthens the Bank of England’s case to resume cutting interest rates next month.” With more people hunting for jobs, workers have less bargaining power – which means pay rises are likely to keep moderating.
Markets Now Price In December Rate Cut
Traders Bet 75% on Rate Cut
Traders are clear in their bets. They’re now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut at the Bank’s mid-December meeting – up significantly from earlier expectations.
Matt Britzman from Hargreaves Lansdown said the softer wage growth “fuels hopes” that another cut’s on the way. The Bank held rates at 4% just last week, but this fresh jobs data has completely shifted the mood.
Gilt Traders Get Excited (Yes, Really)
UK Bond Yields Drop Across the Board
UK government bonds – or gilts, if you want to sound fancy – rallied hard on Tuesday morning. Gilt yields dropped by around five basis points across the board, from five-year to thirty-year maturities.
How Gilt Yields Actually Work
Here’s the quick explainer: gilt yields move opposite to prices. When rate cut hopes rise, existing gilts offering higher interest payments become more attractive. Demand goes up, prices rise, yields fall.
And that’s good news for the Treasury. Higher yields mean higher debt interest payments – the government’s currently facing over £110bn in debt interest costs this year alone. Lower yields mean less financial stress on public finances.
But Some Policymakers Might Still Worry
Wage Growth Still Above Target
Not everyone’s convinced it’s time to celebrate. Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, pointed out that wage growth above 4% is still “above what would be deemed consistent with the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target.”
Some MPC members have been vocal about persistent inflation expectations. They’ll want to see more evidence before confidently backing another cut.
2026 Pay Outlook Looks More Promising
That said, the Bank’s November Agents’ summary suggested 2026 pay settlements are tracking around 3.5% – below this year’s levels. The December Agents’ pay survey should give a clearer picture of what’s coming.
What This Means for You
Impact on Mortgages and Savings
If you’ve got a variable-rate mortgage or you’re about to remortgage, these softer jobs numbers improve your odds of a rate cut in December. But nothing’s guaranteed – the Bank will weigh inflation risks against labour market weakness.
For savers, another rate cut means lower returns on cash accounts. And for the government, falling gilt yields offer some breathing room on debt costs.
Watch the December Meeting
Keep an eye on the December MPC meeting. It’s shaping up to be one of the most closely watched decisions of the year.
FAQ
Q1: Will the Bank of England definitely cut rates in December?
A: Not definitely, but the odds are now 75%. Softer wage growth and higher unemployment strengthen the case for a cut, but the MPC will also consider inflation risks and global economic conditions before deciding.
Q2: Why does private sector wage growth matter more than overall wages?
A: The Bank of England focuses on private sector pay because it’s a better indicator of underlying inflation pressures. Public sector wages are often set by government policy rather than market forces, making them less useful for predicting inflation trends.
Q3: How do lower gilt yields help the government?
A: When gilt yields fall, the government pays less interest on its debt. With debt interest costs already exceeding £110bn this year, even small yield drops can save billions in taxpayer money over time.
Q4: What’s the ‘right’ level of wage growth for 2% inflation?
A: Most economists reckon wage growth around 3-3.5% is consistent with the Bank’s 2% inflation target. Current private sector growth of 4.2% is still elevated, which is why some MPC members remain cautious about cutting rates too quickly.
Q5: Should I fix my mortgage rate now or wait?
A: That depends on your personal circumstances and risk tolerance. If you think rates will fall further, waiting might save you money. But if you need certainty or worry rates could rise again, fixing now locks in current levels. Consider speaking to a mortgage adviser for personalised guidance.
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Effective Date: 15th July 2025
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