Introduction
London’s property market is losing its shine. While house prices across the UK are set to climb steadily over the next five years, the capital’s expected to limp along at the back of the pack. We’re talking a mere 13.6% growth by 2030—compared to nearly a third in places like the North West.
What’s behind this dramatic shift? Affordability’s finally caught up with London. After decades of relentless growth, buyers are voting with their feet and heading north.
London House Price Growth: The Numbers Don’t Lie
Here’s the reality check: London house prices won’t grow at all in 2026, according to property giant Savills. And they’ll remain below the UK average every single year through 2030.
By the end of the decade, London prices will sit just 33% above the national average. That’s a massive drop from 70% above average back in 2017.
Meanwhile, the North West is having a moment. Prices there are projected to jump nearly a third by 2030, narrowing the gap with the UK average from almost 30% to just 15%.
“The more affordable regions in the North and Scotland are outperforming the UK average, and capacity for growth in London and the South is more limited,” says Dan Hill, research analyst at Savills.
Why London’s Property Market Is Cooling Off
Affordability Has Hit Breaking Point
London’s affordability crisis isn’t new, but it’s reached critical mass. Inner London prices actually fell 2.1% month-on-month in July, per Rightmove data.
The removal of stamp duty relief hasn’t helped—it’s squeezed first-time buyers even harder. England’s affordability ratio crossed the 30% threshold in 2024, driven almost entirely by London’s sky-high prices.
Nearly half of Londoners aged 25-45 are ready to pack up and leave over unsustainable housing costs. That’s not a small problem—that’s an exodus in the making.
Buyers Are Looking North
Manchester and Newcastle are the new darlings of the property market. They offer what London increasingly can’t: affordable housing with strong growth potential.
It’s a simple equation. Why stretch yourself thin for a shoebox in Zone 3 when you can get actual space up north for half the price?
Too Many Houses, Not Enough Buyers
London’s now got a glut of properties for sale. The number of homes on the market is roughly 20% higher than a year ago.
Sellers who delayed moves during the uncertainty of recent years are all listing at once. Combined with weakening demand, that’s shifted the power firmly to buyers.
What This Means for the UK Property Market
This isn’t just a London story—it’s a rebalancing of the entire UK housing market. For the first time in decades, regional cities are genuinely competitive alternatives to the capital.
Scottish and Northern England property markets are set to soar as buyers chase affordability and quality of life. The gap between London and the rest of the UK is closing, and fast.
For investors and homeowners alike, the message is clear: look beyond Zone 1. The smart money’s heading north.
Key Takeaways
London house price growth will significantly lag behind UK regions through 2030, with prices barely moving in 2026. Affordability pressures and an oversupplied market have shifted buyer demand to more affordable Northern cities like Manchester and Newcastle. The capital’s housing premium over the national average is shrinking rapidly—from 70% in 2017 to a projected 33% by 2030.
Ready to explore property markets beyond London? The North West and Scotland are serving up serious value right now.
FAQ
Q1: Why are London house prices growing so slowly compared to other UK regions?
A: Affordability has hit a breaking point in London, with housing costs pushing buyers to look elsewhere. Combined with an oversupply of properties and policy changes like the removal of stamp duty relief, demand has weakened significantly while Northern cities offer better value.
Q2: Which UK regions will see the strongest house price growth by 2030?
A: The North West of England, Scotland, and Northern England are set for the strongest growth, with the North West projected to see prices rise nearly a third by 2030. These regions offer affordability and are attracting buyers priced out of London and the South.
Q3: Will London house prices fall or just grow slowly?
A: London prices are expected to stagnate rather than crash, with zero growth predicted for 2026 and modest increases through 2030. It’s not a collapse—just a prolonged period of underperformance compared to the rest of the UK.
Q4: Is now a good time to buy property in London?
A: It depends on your goals. Buyers have more negotiating power due to increased supply, but weak growth prospects mean London may not deliver the returns it once did. If you’re looking for value and growth, Northern cities might be smarter bets.
Q5: How does London’s affordability crisis compare to the rest of England?
A: London pushed England’s overall affordability ratio above 30% in 2024, despite most English regions sitting below that threshold. Nearly half of Londoners aged 25-45 are considering leaving due to unsustainable housing costs—a clear sign the crisis is deeper in the capital than elsewhere.
DISCLAIMER
Effective Date: 15th July 2025
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