Introduction
Chancellor Rachel Reeves just dropped Budget 2025, and it’s packing a £26bn punch aimed squarely at both the wealthy and working Brits. The headline act? Freezing income tax and national insurance thresholds until 2031, a classic “stealth tax” that’ll quietly drain £11bn from your pockets by the end of parliament. With nearly a million more people getting dragged into the 40% tax bracket by 2030, this isn’t your standard budget tweak. It’s a fiscal avalanche, and we’re all standing at the bottom of the slope.
The Big Freeze: Income Tax Thresholds Locked Until 2031
The thing about freezing tax thresholds… It sounds boring, but it’s brutal. When inflation pushes your salary up but tax bands stay frozen, you end up paying more tax on money that doesn’t actually buy you more stuff. It’s fiscal drag dressed up as fiscal responsibility.
What’s Actually Happening?
Reeves is keeping income tax and national insurance thresholds frozen until 2031. That’s a U-turn from last year when she promised to unfreeze them from 2028 to honour Labour’s manifesto.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reckons this freeze will push 920,000 more people into the 40% higher rate bracket and drag another 780,000 into paying basic rate tax by 2030. Even pensioners aren’t safe, some will be paying income tax for the first time next year.
Targeting the Wealthy: New Taxes on Motors, Homes, and Savings
It’s not just stealth taxes doing the heavy lifting. Reeves has rolled out fresh levies on motorists, wealthy homeowners, and savers to bankroll up to £70bn in extra welfare spending by the end of parliament.
That welfare bill? It’s bigger than expected because the government ditched planned savings and lifted the two-child benefit cap at a £3bn cost. Progressive? Maybe. Expensive? Definitely.
The OBR’s Reality Check: Growth Forecasts Take a Hit
If you were hoping Budget 2025 would turbocharge UK growth, prepare for disappointment. The OBR downgraded productivity forecasts by 0.3 percentage points, wiping out Reeves’ previous £9.9bn headroom from the Spring Statement. Growth now looks weaker in every year except 2025.
Reeves Pushes Back
The Chancellor wasn’t having it. “These forecasts are the Tories’ legacy, not Britain’s destiny,” she told reporters. “We beat the forecasts this year and we will beat them again.”
Bold words, but the OBR’s giving her just a 59% chance of meeting her fiscal rules—barely five points higher than the Spring Statement. City analysts are already whispering about future tax hikes or spending cuts.
Fiscal Headroom Doubles, But at What Cost?
Reeves’ tax raid did boost her fiscal headroom to £22bn, double the previous figure. That’s supposed to prove her commitment to “iron-clad” fiscal rules where day-to-day spending matches tax intake.
But here’s the catch: those tax hikes are back-loaded around the next general election. Helen Miller from the Institute for Fiscal Studies called it a “spend now, pay later” budget with “no real appetite for using tax reform to boost growth.”
David Rees at Schroders wasn’t much kinder: “We suspect it won’t be long before the government is forced to come back with more fiscal consolidation.”
Translation? More pain’s probably coming.
Political Fallout and Budget Day Chaos
Budget 2025 didn’t just face policy criticism—it had a technical meltdown too. The OBR accidentally published the entire fiscal forecast 30 minutes before Reeves stood up in Parliament. Richard Hughes, the OBR chair, had to apologise publicly whilst Reeves insisted she still trusted him.
Opposition Fires Back
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch demanded Reeves’ resignation for “breaking her promises,” whilst Reform UK’s Nigel Farage branded the budget an “assault on aspiration.”
Even Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey had a dig, criticising budget leaks for dampening growth. The run-up to Budget 2025 was messy, with frenzied briefings and bond market jitters when the Financial Times reported potential tax hikes.
Conclusion
Budget 2025 is Rachel Reeves’ attempt to steady the fiscal ship whilst funding ambitious welfare spending. But between frozen tax thresholds, back-loaded tax hikes, and gloomy growth forecasts, it’s hard to see this as anything other than a tough pill for UK households to swallow. The real question? Whether these measures will actually stick or whether we’ll be back here in a year talking about Budget 2026’s inevitable adjustments. Keep an eye on your payslip, things are about to get tighter.
FAQ
Q1: What is a stealth tax and why does it matter?
A: A stealth tax happens when tax thresholds stay frozen whilst inflation pushes wages up. You end up paying more tax without any actual increase in rates. Budget 2025’s threshold freeze until 2031 means nearly 1.7 million more people will pay higher taxes by 2030.
Q2: How much will Budget 2025 raise in total?
A: Budget 2025 will raise £26bn over the next five years through various tax measures. The biggest chunk—£11bn—comes from freezing income tax and national insurance thresholds until 2031.
Q3: Who gets hit hardest by these tax changes?
A: Both working people and the wealthy take a hit. The threshold freeze affects middle earners moving into higher tax brackets, whilst new levies on motorists, wealthy homeowners, and savers target those with more assets.
Q4: Will Rachel Reeves raise taxes again in future budgets?
A: Reeves refused to rule out future tax hikes when asked directly by journalists. She admitted she’d “rather the circumstances were different” but wouldn’t commit to any further increases.
Q5: What did the OBR say about UK growth prospects?
A: Not great news. The OBR downgraded productivity forecasts, leaving growth weaker in every year except 2025. They also gave Reeves just a 59% chance of meeting her fiscal rules—barely better than before.
DISCLAIMER
Effective Date: 15th July 2025
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